A sure challenge for the coming year is to ensure the adaptiveness to improved (scientific) knowledge and the alignment of institutional arrangments and action-scopes with those of existing agencies, with prevailing insights on capacity building in least developed countries, achieving synergies within the UN system, and out-reach to industrial sectors and consumers alike as aimed for in the Marrakech Process on sustainable consumption and production.

Emission Data

For a high resolution digital view of man-made green house gas (GHG) emissions see http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/kml_files_intro.php (viewing requires Google Earth).

In EDGARv4.0 (Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research) emissions are calculated for (section 1) direct greenhouse gases, (2) ozone precursor gases, (3) acidifying gases, (4) primary particles, primary aerosols, and (5) stratospheric ozone depleting substances. For each group an overview table presents the status of data available for download. Details at: http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/overview.php

Overview pictures (Global annual emissions, Emissions by Annex I and non-Annex I countries, Emissions per country (major emitters); Emissions per 0.1 degree grid cell) are provided at http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/background.php.

+ Details on Emissions (at EDGAR site)

The Kyoto-Copenhagen Diagnosis

+ Climate Change as a Defining Challenge?

For an accessible report on the Copenhagen Diagnosis, see: The Copenhagen Diagnosis - Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science (2009).¹

Climate Science isn't Settled

The IPCC 4th Assessment Report "Climate Change Synthesis Report" can be found here: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm

In a recent opinion (Wall Street Journal, Nov 30, 2009), Richard S. Lindzen, formerly on IPCC, explains that there is only weak justification for the statement that most of the warming since 1957 was due to man, and that there is no basis for the high sensitivity to CO₂ built into climate models used to predict our climate (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703939404574567423917025400.html).

WHY acting if Science isn't Settled?

When utilizing scientific knowledge in policy making, in the case where science hasn't settled unanimously, UNESCO's World Commission on the Ethics of Scientific Knowledge and Technology (COMEST) has recommended to use the Precautionary Principle. This principle and its implications for science, governance and policy are explained in http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0013/001395/139578e.pdf .

HOW to act if Science isn't Settled?

The COMEST report on the Precautionary Principle also gives recommendations to science, policy and governance in cases where the principle is invoked. Hence the question: do the UN climate talks and the agreements and institutions they create meet these recommendations? Or could they be improved?

An Expensive Urban Legend?

Dr. Roy Spencer, in his contribution An Expensive Urban Legend points out the imperfect dialogue between science and society and the systemic vulnerabilities it creates.²

The Marrakech Process: action on sustainable consumption and production are needed!

Science not settled? An Expensive Urban Legend?

Invoking the precautionary principle for acting, without reflecting the principles' implications in the action, gives rise to vulnerabilities.
Putting caps on pollution and man-made decline of our environment, must not be disputed.

Enhancing sustainable development and environmentally sound technologies, building resilience to climate impacts and consenting to keeping measured emissions and extractions within agreed constraints, all this must be done.

Regarding consumption and production, both major drivers of emissions, The Marrakech Process offers an important platform for a broad dialogue between the public sector and the civil society.

Footnotes

1. The purpose of this report is to synthesize the most policy-relevant climate science published since the close-off of material for the last IPCC report. The rationale is two-fold. First, this report serves as an interim evaluation of the evolving science midway through an IPCC cycle - IPCC AR5 is not due for completion until 2013. Second, and most important, the report serves as a handbook of science updates that supplements the IPCC AR4 in time for Copenhagen in December 2009, and any national or international climate change policy negotiations that follow.

The report has been purposefully written with a target readership of policy-makers, stakeholders, the media and the broader public. Each section begins with a set of key points that summarizes the main findings. Full report in PDF format (3.34 MB); Number of pages: 60p; http://www.preventionweb.net/files/11989_CopenhagenDiagnosisLOW.pdf

2. At http://en.cop15.dk/blogs/view+blog?blogid=2591, these comments are posted There exists checks and balances (elections, institutions, press,…) to mitigate the risk of an expensive urban legend striking (for the global society in this case). Yet as the climate/environment/industry PROBLEM MESS and CONTEXT (=a proliferation of agencies, conflicting interests) are overly complex, the public/press might be inadequately resourced to satisfactorily fill its checking role on what our leaders and administrations are enacting for our common future (inbalance hypothesis).
UNFCCC does efforts to disseminate its work ( http://unfccc.int/), and COP15 engages in a dialogue with the public via this blog), but only few can speak up (let alone be heard).

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